what is a fair price for BHP

Hi readers

A number of questions and so many concerns...
Welcome to a Scorpio moon..

Regarding BHP, is it time to buy yet ?
That is a question for you to answer on your own.
Reason I say that is time frame, and patience.
How long do you want to hold it and what are your expectations.
At the present time it looks to as tho there is a serious carry trade/hedge playing out in the market regardless of price.
Selling the miners, buying the banks.
Yes overseas has finally caught on that the Australian public are slaves to the banks now.
I say that because the attitude is let's live the life in style and showboat while only pay the interest on loans. The piper isn't getting his money back, which is a massive danger.
Now we hear that the government want to change bankruptcy and insolvency legislation, to make it easier to try again.
While that is a good thing it's a double edged knife also.
Those old enough to remember this is 1990-1993 all over again.
Banks will be left holding the debt, in return shareholders will wear it .

My astrology is say around March we should get a better idea of what is a good price or BHP.
We there that is $15, $12 or even $8.80 I don't know.
Market is now just starting to understand the mine damage done, so 40 billion is 12-15 I think.
If 80 billion then $8.50 very strong possibility ... But until we see a cost of damage claim we really can't put a proper price.
So is BHP cheap at the moment? No.

Another full of crap stock is Macquarie bank, will never understand why they call themselves a bank, except for government protection.
Any private trader who trades seriously can't stand 2 companies in the world as they are what we call the blood suckers of the world...
Goldman Sachs , and in Asia Macquarie.
Flip traders like toys if they loose money which I guess is business, but it's the way it's done.
So every time they get caught out in trades by market volitility, I with my friends and HSBC enjoy drinking on there graves.
These firms have the most advanced algorithm software which is years ahead of the regulators.
Able to manipulate market to suite there traders.
In particular small cap stocks.
Regardless of what the SEC or the ASX make out in the public arena these companies basically have there own rule which isn't right.
Yes I did recieve an email weeks ago about pushing FRM down to 20 cents from 60. When we emailed out.
While there code was showing up as a seller at the start,whether that was for clients or not I do not know.
But then when the stock close at 84cents the first time word went around for 300k.
While I wanted to post it I wasn't able to for insider trading rules.
Unfortunately they managed to close shorts by covering.
Waiting for another assault for which this time I am able to act and will .
Yes I'm sure the emails will come from my so called friends so let's see how good they really are.
By the way just so you all know the company has NO intentions to sell shares over the next 2 years to raise capital...

Use caution in your trading for the rest of the month..
I'll post more information on FRM later.

Financial astrology

Hi readers

When I look at stock to invest in not trade I look at 3 things which are pivotal
First... is the astrology, where is the stock at and where it's heading.
Second ...I look at what its product or service to use.
Third...what the financials of the business and how can or will it improve.

The stock in which we have powerful positive astrology is Farm Pride Foods.
First the financial astrology.
For the amature astrologers
From May 2013-May 2015 it when through its Saturn station.( it's restructure so to speak)
As of July 13th 2015 -Sep 23rd it pushed through a Venus trine Pluto at 11 degrees.
This is seeds of the restructure starting to pop up.
As of 9th Dec2015-9th Dec 2017 the company will have jupiter trine Venus in the 2nd house.
This is the most powerful of astrological aspects you can get which affects companies going forward.
Many amature astrologers will question this but when we also put the 6 degrees of the affect is hard to dispute if you know financial astrology.

So what does the company do?

There in the eggs business.
Yep eggs, everyone eats eggs.
They are the largest egg producers on the eastern board of Australia.
They supply eggs to the large chain stores that being (Coles and Safeway).
While there a number of small and medium producers as competitors, to supply the major chains they have that business covered.
The food service industry is growing also and with health regulations around the country forcing many small producers to modernise Farm Pride is sitting in the box seat to pick up future market share.
The health crap which we all got told about eggs increases cholesterol was the biggest fraud in food.
More people are eating eggs and are healthy for it as its proven in the July MD health magazine.

It's competitors being Pace farms and Meggles are very unreliable in the supply for product to the chain stores on the eastern boarder.
So the chain store have no choice but to deal with Farm Pride and accept any pricing structure.
If they had to deal with small producers with the central invoicing systems they have it would be a nightmare.
Sure Farm Pride wouldn't have the quality as some smaller producers but there the only ones with the volume, which leaves the chain stores paralysed.
Bottom line without Farm Pride Australia doesn't eat eggs and that's why in the event of any issues the government will support.

We then look at the value added products that being eggs pulp, scrabbled egg mix, and the aggressively growing market of egg whites to the weight loss and body building industry.
The equipment to make these product,FRM has he capacity to supply, and have the quality to keep growing there market.

Financials
It's looks as tho the company went into building new farms and hiring farms to secure its supply.
Obviously when this occurred it's looks as tho the GFC hit and they couldn't sell stock to raise money.
So it looks as they the company when into serious debt to secure its supply.
As those farms are now coming online Farm Pride has halved it's debt and is making a healthy profit.
I like the fact there is a tight management structure, as I don't see why you need fat cats being paid at the top.
they have been exporting products overseas and I see this continuing in the future with Australia's clean green promotion.

Who are the stake holders in the company?

It appears that the WA co, ( Westcoast eggs)have a massive invested interest in Farm Pride.
Why is that ?
To secure supply to Farm Pride.
As Farm Pride become more self sufficent supply of product will decrease.
It's my understanding reading from the Australian Egg Councils paperwork that WA producers over supply the state by 15%.
Simply there a lot bigger farms with the security of 3 day truck drive which protects them from competition from other producers around the country.

So let's look at valuation
The company has 55 million share.
At $1.80-$2 the company is worth $100 million
If it continue as is without growth and erases it's debt and culls the supply from WA company will earn $19million
If the growth continues and I can see why it won't with the increasing population in Australia, at current levels which we have been told will, in a statement to the market.
Company value then pushes to the $175-200 million.

Now this is the curve ball.
WA own 49% of the company.
WA needs Farm Pride more than the latter.
They even have to members on the board overseeing.
In the event that the culls begins, and Farm Pride no longer need WA.
What do they do?
There not selling out that's for sure , there takeover bid is in play.
For which then what is a reasonable prices knowing that WA need Farm Pride.
It's my view that $7.40 a share is a fair price.
That's equates to around $400 million.

might be time to examine yourself.

Hi readers

If you ever want to see how the establishment screws up traders Friday's action was the perfect example of it.
Burning all traders by pushing the market after news only to drop it back the next day.
Rates going up isn't good for discretionary spending.
Similar situation you have with the A$, everyone knows that it's going down yet it's still trading higher squeezing out short.
This is what the industry calls the establishments control.
Yet when it goes against them they run to the government for support and help.
Whether it's JPM or Maquarie they are all the same.
Investment banks can't make money in an open market as they portray.
Information is key and that's why small traders are always in debt.
It's also small funds who they support also and then call,up IOUs...
Yes regulators know it goes on yet turn a blind eye to it.
Perfect example I got told of a play on a stock in Australia regarding capping compensation claim in the UK.
This at the time was trading around the $3.10-3.20 area.
Word got out and some took the play yet after the announcement the amount of selling which hit the stock was incredible, open shorts, yet under rules these plays aren't allowed to occur.
No I didn't take the trade as I don't trade that way.
The SEC or any other policing agency has no chance of ever catching this type of trading as computer algorithms are that advanced that the authorities surveillance  is some 6 years behind.
That's why no one can or will be caught.

Example... Is it possible for a computer programmer on $120k be smarter than a programmer on $2 million.
That's what the game is and that's why this will never stop.
That's the truth regardless of what you think or believe.
That's why at times you will have a parcel of shares on the bid, yet when you try to sell into them they immediately disappear with a small amount only executed.
What's the excuse from the authorities, the order on the bid was revised.
Yet on the screen it's was clearly showing the bid size.

This is the main reason buy beware on spec stocks.
When rates move and money becomes tight, small spec stocks will sell there own shares to raise capital.... SUPPLY DEMAND  people.

Another great play is when sellers want to liquidate a stock they hold.
Calls are made around to limit the selling so the stock can be cooked up.
It's run to a certain point and then the word goes out to sell it.
Once again leaving the small traders holding the bottle,after the smart money has got drunk on there success.

While many of you are Technical traders and I do respect that you need to know what your investing in.
Have rules to only trade a certain amount of shares in it so you can liquidate at will without getting stuck in a stock because of its potential.
CHANCE COMES TO THE PREPARED MIND.
Without money you have to chance of playing so be smart with it.