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Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Not all commodities will hold gains

Hi readers

As we are seeing the continuation of the devaluing US$ all commodities are gaining value.
Not because of a supply and demand issue, it's just a pure dollar play...
Note this won't continue as many believe, and the market will be left on the wrong side of the move only to swing the other way hard.
In the grain and soft markets the weather ghosts are going to play havoc with supply and prices will continue higher.
As stated to the commodity players via email grains and softs are the best trades.
Not metals or oil, as supply is ample and more is coming onto the market unhedged at the present time.
To the couple of grains farms in NSW who jump on the wheat option trade with us last week, hold your nerve even tho the trade has doubled there is still more to go.

Those who are long metals or oil be very careful as a hit can come at anytime.
I can tell you with certainty that every shale oil rig available to every company in the sector is being deployed.
So regardless of what OPEC say and do the sector has ample supply, but is being held back artificially to increase price.
Those in the industry know this and are waiting as long as possible to forward sell production and lock in price.
Once the market awakes to this it's too late, so please when trading oil or metals use caution.

In grains and soon in softs weather will damage crops leaving supply in a tight squeeze.

On the stock front our stock play FRM.ax is looking fine, we see the media beating the supply drums for the company, in the last 24 hours.
Which will once again give Farm pride the authority to increase prices and increase profitability.
While the stock has been in that $1.80-$2.20 area of fair value, the market will now begin to start factoring in potential profitability going forward.
Don't need to be a brain surgeon to work that out!
Look at what prices of eggs are at the present time, look what they are in about a months time and then minus the difference of the two.
That will give you a number, 50% of that number will flow back to the company while the other half the retailer will pocket.

Take note with grain prices rising, media beat up on short supply ?
That to me is the perfect storm to raise prices..

How wonderful it is how astrology works.
One for the true believers 

Election chaos

Hi readers

As expected Hilary has won the nomination, congratulations to her and as stated previously it's hers to loose.
On the other side of the race who knows what going on.
One thing is for sure Donald speaks exactly what american people feel and believe.
So whether you like it or not accept and move on.
Yes the remarks about certain religions are true, but because we are all so politically correct those view simmer underneath until people explode.

Free trade is bullshit..
The Chinese government write off farm debt yearly to farms to produce, yet around the world farmers  pay interest on modernising there farms to stay competitive.
How is that free trade, when your getting back door subsides.
Yet when we question it or put it on the table, we are called racists.

Perfect example... Australian piggeries 8 years ago where exporting pork into China, high quality and at good prices.
In order to stop this the Chinese government funded the animal liberation to put pressure on farms and government.
At the time I believe farmers had 14 pigs to a pen, in good conditions.
Yet this was seen as cruelty to animals.
So the Rudd government in Australia changed the law, and made it almost impossible for farms to be able to export pork to China.
Now in China pigs are 32 to pen and are exported to New Zealand and renamed and sent to Australia.
You don't hear boo from the animal liberationist.
That's why when Trump started talking about free trade the Chinese shit themselves and have funded Hilary to the moon.

I don't really care what people think or believe, the truth does hurt at times.
So accept it and deal with it.

Another election is going to be held soon, in Australia.
Looks as tho there will be a new Labor government.
Looking at the astrology looks like the decision the liberal thugs did in ousting out Tony Abbott will come back to haunt them.
Turnball is and always has been a media bunny.
His not a person to lead a country through a difficult period.
Those with astrological knowledge will know that this Scorpio ( Malcom Turnball)is a pure backstabber.
Trusting any word from his mouth is at your own cost you.

While bill shorten a Taurus of the true sense.
He too isn't a leader more of a follower than a leader.
His able to seriously get the best out of people, and is very loyal to those who show the same to him.
I'm very confident in say that its a labor party victory in Australia.
Not because labor is better than the liberals but because one has people around him that can help tackle issues, while the other is always watching his back.

In trading at the present time just trade the astrological dates, if the agree with your own work then you have a true move if not use caution.
Central bankers at the present time have lost control of monetary policy, I'd be cautious of any currency trading at the present time.