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Friday, March 10, 2017

4.7 unemployment rate REALLY......

Hi readers

How good is it ...
The unemployment numbers are showing potential full employment yet talk to people and no one can find a job.
Same case with Australia the way in which the unemployment numbers are calculated are a joke.
Since when was 18 hours part time employment classed as employed.
Anyway it looks great and the fed has its go ahead to raise rates.

What has Trump done since taking office to encourage employment? Bluffing the market and his good at it.
Problem he will have soon is when crops need to be picked and there is no Mexican workers to pick what will that do to the price of fruit and vegetables.

I have made the comment to a number of you from the US if the dollar keeps on rising exports sales will tumble and imports will run riot.
Later in the year this might settle down but for the time being it's seriously hurting multi nationals companies.
For the time being the smart money is aware of it and is liquidating equities on the positive days, while if the market is down there is a back off approach.

While many of you use technical analysis reading the tape also is a wonderful insight.

So when is the astrology going negative on the market, many are asking!
May......you don't want to be holding equities unless you know what's going on with the company or you have a long term view and can hold a stock through a negative period.
Always remember small cap spec stocks will suffer a lot more than chip stocks as funding tends to dry up in a declining market.

In the commodities market I only see value in corn, wheat and beans, but with a dead oil price I doubt  prices will be able to trade higher.
Oil is extremely overpriced and has been a Xmas windfall for all shale oil producers.
Like our company many have sold heavily into the market bore $52 for the last couple of months and an over production of crude oil will kill prices going forward regardless what the Saudi's or Russian do. There is a glut..

In the metals market prices are still overpriced, gold in particular.
Silver will improve after June but not gold.

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Here we go...

Hi readers

It's been a while and so much to talk about.

Trump
US Economy
Fed
Oil
Markets
Australian Economy
Brexit
UK Economy
Asia
China
Stocks
Small cap stocks
Current investments
Financial Astrology
Sport colours

Just want to make the point that I haven't been trading futures for the last 2 months due to negative aspects which will end the following week and it's for that reason I haven't put positive and negative dates, no point posting if I'm not trading it.. why should you.

Comments that people have made regarding Trump at times have left me speechless.
If you voted you wouldn't of been in the position your in so please accept and move on .
We did say Trump is a dark horse and the funny thing about Trump is he has no clue on being a leader.
What he needs to do is get over his campaign style for president, and start being a leaders, something he will find very difficult to do.

The US Economy will start showing serious cracks this year and it's  the lack of presidential leadership which will be to blame.
Market like stability , CEO's tend to plan 6-9 months ahead, when this pattern is messed with you tend to see jolts in stability, CEO's tend to delay decisions on expansions, and as a result we see the market correct aggressively.
We already know that CEO's are delaying expansion yet the stock market is anticipating further growth.
This won't last and a correction will be forthcoming, a revaluation should be expected.
We see the Fed slowly pushing up rates which is a huge mistake..
Even  the rats know when the fed will move which is very dangerous.
The speed of the rate hike should be quicker as to protect the world economy.
But unfortunately Yellen is looking after her own interests, as not to rattle market and traders.

As stated to some of you I did not believe the S&P would hit 2350 let alone trade above it but I'm very confident we will see 1700 this year and lower.
Market can anticipate moves for so long before the rug is pulled from underneath them.

We can see bonds rates drifting higher yet the stock market doing the same so who is right!