Is the Rally real or an illusion

 Hi Readers

While the news coming out is continuing to be bad all around the world retail is being lured into believing the illusions that we have seen the bottom, and that the Fed will slow down its rate rises and even cut rates.

Lets get one thing straight which will come but not for a while Deflation.

Many analysts have said it over and over again but this won't play out until the mid to end of 2023 going by what my astrology is showing.

Yes at the present time inflation has stabilized but this is only going to last until the mid term elections, once the republicans take the senate Biden won't be able to use the strategic reserves to lower energy prices. Oil will rise again and the inflation bubble will continue.

The market is so consumed with the economy and that the Fed will pivot and support the stock market, but this is more hope than a reality. Inflation is now stuck on the economy like a tumor and yes its going to get a lot worse than many think of believe.

The Fed has no choice but to raise rates and as a result central banks must increase rates more than the Fed to protect both there debt and currency markets.

In regards to the stock market it is just a derivative to the bond market. The Bond market is where the Fed is more concerned about. The Commercial banks have $2.2 Trillion sitting at the Fed in reverse repo, I don't want to get too technical but if the Fed wants that money to go into the stock market they could stop paying .20% and that money will make its way into both the bond market and stock market.

Get this, firms are cutting back staff, and GDP is falling and companies have already begun guiding lower forward estimates yet we are told that there is 11 million vacancies openings in the US. If that tells you that there is something wrong I don't know what will. But the market has gain 12% for its lower on anticipation of the Fed pivoting.

Yes the astrology was showing a bounce but the move this week has surprised me. I didn't think that the S&P would trade above 4200. So lets see how markets trade over the next fortnight. Please use the next month or 2 to stock up what you require as prices will continue to increase.

The property market has started feeling the pressure of higher interest rates with people being told by banks to put there properties on the market, but there is no panic yet as if there was we would be witnessing massive numbers on the auction front. What we see is property being put on the market for private sale.

The above should be used for educational purposes.

The above is based on Astrological aspects.

Ask your financial advisor on more on the above

 

 

more rate increases coming

 Hi Readers

Its been a while since I've last posted and I do have a number of posts to post.

I deliberately held back posting just to see how the market and peoples views of whats playing out.

I've got to say that I am really disappointed peoples thinking moving forward.

The thought that governments or central banks are going to sign blank checks to people is a massive delusion. 

Interest rates are going to continue going higher for the simple reason, inflation is a nuclear bomb politically. People will tolerate it for a while but once the savings are gone the patients runs out and the blame becomes permanent.

The FED and the Biden administration know this and while the market believes the FED will pivot and cut rates to protect the economy or the stock market, I doubt this will take place and I will explain why?

The FED first made the error of buy junk bonds and keeping rates low for far too long.

They had the opportunity to move in February 2021 but refused to and doubled down on there bond buying.

The FED then when inflation in March started to show up started calling it transitory.

Since when was this word ever used in finance ? never.

Yet the market believed the FED and not what was taking place, its was when the bonds yields started to rise that the FED had to back down and realize that the market wasn't believing the bullshit it was being fed (transitory).

Now that the FED has increased rates repeatedly market participates and trying to convince the FED to pivot, and that the economy will fall into a recession if they don't.

People have become so trained to being told that the media can convince people including in finance of what equates to a recession.

The economy has already been in a recession since March 2022 but the official 2 quarters of negative GDP came out a fortnight ago and now we here the bullshit again about we might get revisions and what have you.

For those who don't know during good times central banks cut the money supply by increasing rates and flood the system with cheap money during a recession, to boost productivity.

So what is the FED doing right now ?  the total opposite and they have no choice  due to the above error. (inflation)

So now lets look at what the FED's hedge is to raising rates and not taking responsibility for there actions.

It's call the Jobs market, people are demanding higher wages and either companies pay up or workers will walk. Over the last month all I've seen is companies laying off staff not employing. Yet the numbers are showing 12 million  job openings.

I put one very simple question to you, if there is basically 2 jobs out there for every unemployed registered worker then why is US GDP dropping.

For companies chasing staff means they are pumping out production and profits yet in the Q2 profit results every company was clearly stating that they missed forecasts or they are experiencing lower sales or production moving forward.

So now that you understand how central banks are playing this game moving forward, you can position yourselves to take advantage of it.

Central banks don't give a shit about the economy's, they will keep raising rates until inflation comes down. 

The world should be watching the FED because all central banks are playing the same game. The FED as stated previously exported the inflation around the world, so watch whats taking place in the US as economy's are just months behind.

As this is being posted there is an hour to go before the CPI numbers come out, and yes they will be lower, but still 4 times higher than what the FED's target rate of 2% inflation.

Media will start spinning out the bullshit of inflation has peaked but I don't believe so.

US government is selling oil from its strategic reserves, Biden has been begging the Arab nations for more oil production but no one gives a rats.

The FED is doing its job by cutting peoples expenditure by raising rates and killing demand.

After the midterm election I think oil will make a come back to higher prices.

Grains haven't changed yet the paper price has fallen, crop yields look very poor but the USDA won't publish real numbers in yields as grains will explode in price.

Unless you do your own research obtaining data from government agencies, it must be taken with a grain of salt.

As always use the above as an indicator to your own work.

Ask your financial advisor on more on the above.

I am not a financial advisor, and the above is for educational purposes only