Total Pageviews

Wednesday, October 25, 2023

Yields are starting to look attractive

 Hi Readers

Markets seem to be trading all over the place at the moment. We are seeing bond yields increasing higher yet the Fed hasn't moved on rates yet. There is an old saying that the bond market is always right not the stock market. The bond market is like a cargo ship once it starts moving and the stockmarket is like a speed boat can move very quickly. 

For some of you who are retired a 5% yield for the next 10 years is a very attractive proposal. I'm not saying it can't go higher but you need to weight it up to your own circumstances. talk to your financial planners about locking up some money into fixed income and that's a comfortable retirement. but only if its something that interest you. I think we can go a little higher first around the 5.50-6%. I think that if we go higher than that then all hell will take place.


Just a note which is an illusion many believe will take place. Company buybacks will recommence next month and into December and many believe that stocks will have there Santa Clause rally. Previous years money was cheap and what companies did is loan money or issue bonds and then go into the market and buy their shares up. With government bonds at current levels companies need to pay a premium to obtain funds. While many have been beating the media drum about record buybacks lets see if they can obtain money first and at what rate. Some of the venture capital firms can't get money under 10% so there is no way companies I don't care who will be able to pay up and then buy there stock up.

To the Australian investors small cap stock who don't have there funding in order will struggle to find money moving forward. They will have to pay premium rate for money.

So before you look at investing in companies make sure you look at the financials and see if the company is financially sound. If not just wait for these companies to cap raise and then look into them.


Tuesday, October 24, 2023

5.4% inflation, its still brewing in Australia

 Hi Readers

So the inflation number just came out in Australia and what do you know inflation was higher than expected. So why now all of a sudden that we need to move on rates when inflation was anticipated at 5.3% and it came in at 5.4% in Australia this is. For .1% higher who cares, what's the big deal.

Its what your not being told is the big deal ! and that is that unlike in the US where there is strikes everywhere for more money by employee's, companies in Australia have absorbed the costs believing that inflation was going to come down, if we see another number of higher inflation companies won't hesitate to increase costs heading into Xmas.

The bean counters will be crushing numbers to see where the companies profitability is at as of tomorrow and into next week. The US is in a similar position just more into the process than what Australia is. 

Now lets look at why has happened since rates have moved up.

Governments around the world know full well the implications of what higher rates will do to the property market so, they too the approach of letting anyone into there country regardless of what they do or what they earn, I say that because I know people who have come from Burma to Australia and the guy is a diesel mechanic. The Australian government has been advertising it overseas that anyone can come with a trade or laborer. Now these people need somewhere to stay and they are coming for a better life to Australia so the government knows they can't buy homes but can rent. What do we currently have around the western world shortage of ? property rentals.

Doesn't matter where you look, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, UK, US or Europe its all the same. So we have this going on to protect banks from defaults while house prices are coming off but not as quickly as many have anticipated with property investors being drained of there wealth. IF your paying 6 or 7% mortgage rates and returning 1-2% your 5% in a arrears. So its going t take time for this to play out and here is the other scenario lets assume that inflation does fall away and the economies around the world turn to shit, what is the only thing the central banks do. Yes cut rates and if this does happen before we get a clean out of debt asset prices on property, shares or vehicles will explode making everyone poorer for it.  

Why do I say this well if your not able to afford a $1.5 million home now in Australia what makes you think you can a 2.5 million home if the central banks cut rates. its my belief the BIS want to bankrupt the world. Every government is a slave to the BIS, they do as they are told.

So you don't want rates to go down at all if anything you want them to stay where they are or go higher. We need to clean out the excess debt out of the system before rates come down or there will be no real growth

General view

 Hi readers 

Its amazing how media has the ability in all facets to control what you read/opinions, last post got deleted as I was told it was inciting racial division. What happened to free speech.

I only stated my opinion on the referendum that took place here in Australia and thank god the public isn't all stupid and voted No. The vote had nothing to do with first people/aboriginals and acceptance. It all had to do with sovereignty of the land. Giving it to the government meant you can never own it as the government would have the sovereignty on it and could do what it like over it, yes even booting you off it. Government was going to use that as collateral to its debt with the BIS. There the facts whether you like them or not. Australians shouldn't be paying any tax with the amount of resources we have under and over the ground. Yet we pay so much that its never enough.

Yes I have a massive tax bill and I'm ranting about it.

I deliberately haven't post so the market can catch up to what's playing out.

Inflation hasn't fallen at all in fact its increased. Yet we hear the bull shit media come out with numbers that will just comfort peoples anxiety.

Here in Australia property investors are basically all screwed regardless of when they bought the properties, to be earning a 2-3% on your property yet deposit rates are sitting at 4% says it all.

Then you put in the cost of rates and insurance and that 2-3% become 1-2%. Oh yes you own the property and its capital gaining, really !!In Victoria the communist states thats all about to change with new money grabbing taxes taking affect. I don't know how or who is going to police them but hey what do you expect, everything works well in theory, but practice is another thing. 

Good luck trying to get overseas investors who own property paying 1% of the value of the house for no one living in it. Body corporates and banks are trying to find the investors to pay 3 years arrears..LOL

If readers inflation has fallen then why not lower interest rates as they have done there job?

Inflation readers in brewing and its at the tipping point of stagflation and deflation.

The debt which has been written up in unsustainable, we simply don't have the capacity to service it yet people and governments are continuing to borrow more and more.  At the BIS meeting last week while everything else was happening the reality dawned on the financial sector. 45% of the large banks are insolvent. Regardless of whether you have money in the bank or not if a bank is operating insolvent then the deposits are its collateral. just be aware of it moving forward.

In the stock markets we see stock slowly deflating yet those who have lied about there earning will be exposed with the lunar/solar Eclipses which have/will take place.

As always the above is based on astrological aspects

Ask your financial advisor on more on the above