observation

I've been looking at the Bonds of late and have noticed an opportunity which looks to me interesting.
I don't think today is the day for it this would be more for come Monday when bond prices will once again be rising.
I'm looking at either writing 142 DEC Call or buying 140 Dec Puts in the 30 year bonds.
Now the open interest on the Two are  quiet interesting as the market makers need to close bonds by the 25th of Nov under 139 to maximize there return and minimize being exercised
Just take a look at the opportunity and see if its suits you if not just watch it and maybe next time when a set up like this once again arises you can consider it.
With the positive week expected next week I'll be surprised if the bonds aren't under 139.12 by Thursday close.
To make serious money the bonds need to be around the 142.20+ area.

AS ALWAYS USE THE ABOVE AS AN INDICATOR TO YOUR OWN WORK.
Cheers

As this is being written 141.10

Positioning

Good Morning

Well a nice bounce up we are seeing and all is good I guess depend on which side of the fence you are on .
It looks as tho 1218.25 is the low to hold or is it ?
Today as this is being written markets at 1246+ which is great for all the bulls traders.
But today I do have some negatives which will kick in from 11.30am and run through out the afternoon enough I guess to make some good dollars.
But the play is for Monday where news which will come from Europe could once again shake the foundations once again.

Looks to me like some bank might go into public ownership or collapse.
I think both the Euro and maybe gold will suffer as once again serious margin calls might take hold on market sentiment for the day.
I think US bonds and the dollar might be a safe bet , not commodities.

Sunday and into Monday could see a close test of the 10th's low.(1218.25)
Please note that regardless of what the news is or what occurs during Monday please make sure you do not have short position come the close of Monday as there is some very powerful up days ahead.

For the Students of Financial astrology we have the all might powerful Jup/Mars Trine.
What does this mean to the market ?
Jup = sign of plenty and more isn't enough, expansion.
Mars= quickly, powerful moves, aggressive
Trine= optimistic, confidence,success.

When you put all this together you can see that a powerful move is coming.
Should see signs of it come Tuesday and Wednesday, Thursday, (my bear brothers) jump on the back of the bull, and let it run.

 AS ALWAYS USE THE ABOVE AS AN INDICATOR TO YOUR OWN WORK.
Cheers

As this is being written 1246.00

review

Looking at the market at the present time you can now see very clearly that margin calls where the reason the market fell so much, and not as many believe was open selling.
Its for this reason I said yesterday dangerous trading at the present time.
There was a 50% chance of a rebound and a 50% change of a continuation.
Odds like that you don't make money, your gambling.
Here we are trying to put more odds in favour to one side, so the chances of losses are low.


While we are in the critical aspect right now its interesting to see just where the low will be.
Current low is 1218.25 is that it ? don't know to be honest but likely.
For those of you who are looking for an option trade or a futures trade on the bonds its coming up...
Maybe Monday tho as could be higher that what it is today..
Anything above 142.20 will trigger the play.Its the DEC options.Which expire on the 25th of this month.
More later.

AS ALWAYS USE THE ABOVE AS AN INDICATOR TO YOUR OWN WORK.
Cheers

As this is being written 1241.75

review

Well well, what an interesting day.
It looks like the euro is finished now with the margin calls this morning on Italian Debt.
While many bears are getting excited about the down day its more to do with selling every position you have to cover losses or raising money to meet requirements.

Still we are in the Full moon phase and a low to hold of some sorts is on.
Tomorrow there will be a lot of news coming out of Europe good or bad not sure.
This could snap right back or fall .
Is 1222..75 the low to hold too early to say.
When every commodity and currency is getting nail except bonds and dollar, most often that's margin calls.
So read what it is not what you want it to be.
The ECB move was a clue to what could happen.
Missed it !!!!

Looking further in just observations for the Financial Astrology Students.
Full Moon do tend to bring endings, so it will be interesting to see what occurs tomorrow.
Either the crystal destruction of the euro or the ending of the Italian news.
Just observing tomorrow, to dangerous to trade.

Please note no need to trade daily, when its dangerous why risk capital!!

As always use the above as an indicator to you own work.

Cheers
As this is being written 1228.25

Good Morning

Looking at the astrology today its looking for a slow grind up today.
But we are moving into the Full moon aspect which tend to produce bottoms and tops in other markets.
While the full moon is in a Taurus sign the bottoms will hold while any markets that make tops wont hold.
News coming out of Europe will be some what dangerous and many issue will be exposed.
I have the market falling away in the afternoon Thursday, and into Friday but not seriously.

For the Students of Financial astrology Neptune goes direct today so oil could see some action to the downside.
Hidden agendas will be exposed and in particular from Europe.
While the month does have some negative days I do believe that there will be a serious divergence between the European and US markets in coming weeks.
Its important that you use caution today and tomorrow in trading as bottoms in markets will be active.
I'm still inclined to buy the dips

As always use the above as an indicator to you own work.

Cheers
As this is being written 1265.

Don't say I didn't warn you

There  is no point emailing asking for levels which I think this market will top out at or stop.
Astrology does work that way.
It just gives you the emotional component of what the market attitude is.
One shorting in a STUPID running bull is foolish.
By the way I know some are hoping for trouble out of Italy for the market to fall well, maybe but what else is new.
Right now market isn't worried about what might and could!

Don't say I didn't warn you .

As for technicals I'm not a tech guy so look up the web and find sites which can assist you ..

 As always use the above as an indicator to you own work.

Cheers
As this is being written 1263.00

observation

Morning

Yesterday we got the fall we expected but no follow through in fact we got a reversal.
For the market to close where it did( in positive territory) on such a negative aspected day is a very serious danger sign for the bears.
If you ever wanted to see a hedge trade then look no further than the indexes, Sell Europe/Buy US.

To my fellow bear brothers this is not the time to stand up and take on this bull.
My reading of yesterday is that this bull is just strenching his legs and is getting ready to run hard.
This bull can see blood and has put the his front foot half cocked out there.
There will be a time to take this bull on but not now, dont stand in front and he will run right through you.
Use the down moves as opportunities to buy.

The best thing for all bears is to jump on board the run and wear him out sooner, as the weight of numbers will be too heavy for him to continue running hard.

Looking forward we see small down days but no 2% down days for the month, so play the odds.
In fact the next serious down day is 2nd Dec.

Wednesday the 9th looks to be an nice up day which gathers momentum as the day progresses.
The 10th of November full moon is still showing some sort of bottom to hold give or take 24 hours.

Question you should ask yourselves?
IF you where a $200 million manager, where would you invest your money Europe or US.
Thats whats going on.
Take a look at copper today as its got positives today and tomorrow which might pop the price up on it.

As always use the above as an indicator to you own work.
cheers

Price as this is being written 1250.25

Couldn't resist

I was reading and thought this would be an interesting read

How American Banks Are Engineering the Next Apocalypse, Again

Remember credit default swaps? AIG? Hopelessly entangled exotic financial instruments tied to esoteric asset valuations that caused cascading defaults in 2008 and threatened to tank the global financial system unless taxpayers ate all the losses? Remember how we reformed Wall St. to make sure that never repeated itself? Someone tell Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, because they've teed the whole damn thing up again, this time in Europe.
Bloomberg's Yalman Onaran has an excellent and terrifying account of how American banks have spent the last three years replaying precisely the same malevolent game that led to the '08 crisis. But instead of playing with shitty real estate, they're playing with European bonds. Either way, the endgame is the same: As soon as someone can't pay their bills, we'll be talking about "systemic risk" again.
American lenders have sold a half a trillion dollars worth of insurance on European debt, mostly in the form of credit default swaps, Onaran reports. That means that if European bond issuers default, these American banks—Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citbank, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America chief among them—are on the hook to pay up. And the amount of insurance issued by U.S. firms actually ticked up by $80 billion in the first half of 2011—a time, you will recall, when half of Europe seemed to be teetering on default.

"We could have an AIG moment in Europe," said Peter Tchir, founder of TF Market Advisors, a New York-based research firm that focuses on European credit markets. "Let's say Greece defaults, causing runs on other periphery debt that would trigger collateral requirements from the sellers of CDS, and one or more cannot meet the margin calls. There might be AIGs hiding out there."

The banks all claim they've managed to spread the risk around—so that if, say, the recently reached voluntary deal with Greece's debtors goes south and the country defaults, they will be able to pay the resulting bills. Yes, Morgan Stanley, for instance, has sold a lot of credit default swaps on Spanish debt—but it's hedged that risk through an arcane financial process called "netting," and we all know how successful arcane financial processes are when subjected to massive stress.

Morgan Stanley said last month that its net exposure in the third quarter to the debt of Spain's government, banks and companies was $499 million. The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, an interagency body that collects data for U.S. bank regulators and disallows some of the netting, said the New York-based firm's exposure in Spain was $25 billion in the second quarter.
The net figure for Italy was $1.8 billion, Morgan Stanley said, compared with $11 billion reported by the federal data- collection body.

That's right—Morgan Stanley's estimate of its Spanish risk is only off by a factor of 50. Its market capitalization is $31 billion. Anyway, I'm sure it's all fine and the banks have it under control and Bloomberg is just doomsaying. Why would a bank lie about something like this?