Don't be fooled by illusions

Hi readers

Well so much to look and and where to start first.

First of all NFLX.
Such a cocky CEO and to think that price rises won't affect the company.... Think again sport!
Pluto is on her way and your company is in the firing line..
Yes people I couldn't resist I did short the stock at $450.10. For a trade.

Second APPL
The devil is in the detail people.
 The latest product isn't taking off as was expected.
iPad air and the mini is way below what they thought.
Yes sales of iPhones did well but, when you take out the China sales they where a flop.
Anyway I see it as justification for the current price but what's next.
Watches really?
I went out to the shops on the weekend and sat and counted how many people had watches.
If Mr Cook is pinning his hopes on watches his in for a rude awakening.
Retail got excited of the profit result and bought at any cost, which is great for them.
The one thing Apple has is that dam war chest, anyone shorting the stock is stupid.
You can't afford to when a company has that much fat sitting wait to be put to use.

Third FB
Wonderful result a 49% lift in profits.
Are you serious, this is a company with a so called 1.7 billion uses and it only increased it sales by double digit..
Good chance I might have to lower my target.

In regards to the market take note who is reporting good numbers and thinks the world is there oyster.
There the ones that are going to receive the reality check.
This Mercury retrograde will be unforgiving soon.

Question is with the results that are in so far do they justify a 2000 S&P.

Also please don't chase trades out there wait for them to come to you.
Gold over 1300 was a nice little trade.
The euro with the ECB announcement was another.
Please be patient and let them come to you.

One more thing the ECB stimulars is a complete failure.
It has no substance on what it tends to do and if the Greeks leave the euro then watch Italy and Spain to follow suit.

Why change a perfect method

Hi readers
Well the Obama speech was something special..
When you listen to him talk you just want to battle for the guy ..( you really do)
But the reality is  that he did state truths and the disrespect from the Republicians was very distasteful.
Yes the economy is growing and yes more jobs are being created than in the last 15 years in terms of yearly.
So the question is why change a good thing?

As much as I admire Obama, fact is he's speech was in a retrograde.
Retrograde tend to start 24 hours before so sounded great but nothing will become of it.
It's annoying that the Republicans are some what cocky at the present time, they need to be very careful on there actions over the next 18 months as they will be judged.
For the political people, Hilary does have a very powerful chart come next presidential election.
Where as the Republicans are so so depending on who the runners are.

To the markets changers are coming, and please be careful on your Investment should you need to.
Best advice don't trade.
If the economy is strong why are bonds so low?
Beware of hype.
It's amazing how throwing more money at structure that are broken won't work.
Same with the Japanese, the ECB want to use the U.S. model of devaluation to prop up exports and get out of the rut Europe is in.
Devaluating doesn't work, government need new people with better ideas to get out of the mess there in.
It's the same as a store in a mall against online store selling the same thing, without overheads.
Times change and so do methods, but for some reason governments just don't get it.

The Swiss franc was one of the most easiest trades I think of the decade if anyone has ever taken it.

Gold while it's riding on the uncertainty at the present time this will end soon so becareful.
Markets are in the bear game, trading lower but snapping back up quickly, so the evidence is there.
Reports this week should be disappointing, so let's see what happens.
Update on the stocks and markets
S&P

Times up for Apple

For those who are not up to speed... How the competion has arrived

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/01/15/apple-inc-faces-its-biggest-challenge-yet.aspx

Not what it seems

Hi readers

You can't say you didn't know this was coming. But then again maybe some of you do the contrarian trade.
Either way it is what it is , and my bank account is looking better each day.
As stated yesterday if profits don't meet or exceed the high price valuation will be corrected and that's what appears to be happening right now.


http://www.bidnessetc.com/32609-why-credit-suisse-is-backing-facebook-inc-all-the-way-to-100/

I got this off the Internet and I just laughed at how gullible analysts really are .
Not because of his view, but because of the serious lack of research to the claim.

In the hedge fund world it's still obvious that they don't get it ,after how many years.

The central banks are players in the market.
The do what is required to bring a net return to the governments at the end of the day.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/01/15/swiss-snb-shorts-idINL1N0UU1W620150115


On the Australian front it good to see that at least the government has a great idea of new business and marketing, with free trade deal running hot that just might cushion the fall but there is still time for that to go wrong.
We shall see! One thing is for sure they seriously need to fix there communication to the people and slowly implement reforms not in the first 2 years and then next 2 years play the suck up your ass game.
If the government was serious about balancing the budget as they say they are why sent troops to iraq to fight thugs...
It's not an army it thuggery.
Spend 2-3 billion a year to get browny points ain't very smart.


Questions

Are you not trading futures and if so why aren't you posting your trades?
Yes I am trading for myself, since being in Bahrain my license has lapsed and as a result I'm unable to post.
Getting clarification on what I can and can't and then will do so in February.

If Apple drops due to innovation as you say wouldn't that mean the the semiconductors and the chip makers would fall also?
Yes but by how much not sure, as I don't follow them.

What is your personal view of Mahendra Sharma's 3200 S&P ?

My view is not much really, I've never met the man, he uses Hindu astrology in the market and that's about it
We all make mistakes and sometimes moves are delayed, but they do happen .
We will never see that level in the next 2 years.
If we stay at this level (2000) it will be a massive result but with the astrology coming there is no way this is possible.
Professionals who have used his services have had a negative result from it, so everyone has there own views and mine is you pay for what you get.
Yes and sometimes you do get riped off.


As always use the above as an indicator to your own work.
Past performance is no guarantee for future performance.
Ask your financial advisor on more on the above.
Don't act on free reading as you haven't payed for it to be obligated.

JPM .... Average numbers not great in a booming stock market

Hi readers

JPM numbers did hit expectation but also didn't get slammed either.
Anything less than a 5% drop for companies who don't meet expectations is just a clip over the ears.
Wells Fargo is just a nice steady mover as always.
Tomorrow and Friday we have the other banks reporting so it will be interesting.

Yes someone made mention that most techs stocks are reporting during the retrograde!
So expect serious disappointments in the sector.

Notice how wheat isn't running up just yet, you still have plenty time to acquire positions if you choose too before March.

Both bonds and gold at the present time are seen as safe havens hence that's why there not falling yet but as I have said before at some point this will occur very quickly.

Market should try to bounce on Thursday and Friday but don't expect huge moves up.
If anything might be down and then come up to close positive.

Questions
How much will the dollars rise affect returns from multi national companies?

Simple work out as of June the dollar index was trading around the 80-81 market.
It's now around the 92 level so that's about 12-13%.
There is your answer, but on the opposite side those importing are gaining the same amount so for quick trades maybe looking at importers for a hedge.( just an idea)


As always use the above as an indicator to your own work.
Past performance is no guarantee for future performance.
Ask your financial advisor on more on the above.
Don't act on free reading as you haven't payed for it to be obligated.

Gold is very expensive at the present time!

Hi readers

As we saw today the market isn't what many have been expecting in the professional community.
Market so strong in the morning only to loose all its gain by the close.
The reality check is on the way and it will stay for longer than many people think.

I think it will be very wise for governments around the world to redo there tax revenue numbers for gains from investments.
Not until Thursday is this negative aspect going to wane so don't expect any let up.

Questions
What's the real value of gold right now!

First I just want to say that I'm not a gold fan, in fact gold is the past secure investment in my view but in saying that I do respect people's love of it.
Oil has always lead any gold move up and or down.
So the ration has always been 18-22 barrels to an ounce of gold.
Therefore if we work it out from current prices gold should be $1012 top to bottom $828.
That's what the true value is of gold and at some point gold will come to that areas.
Right now it is very expensive by market standards.
So you need to be patient regarding buying levels for the long term.
Just look at copper?
2 years ago analysts came out and said that copper was never going to trade under $400 per pound.
Now it's trading under 250 and going to 190.

So please don't get sucked into the idea that things are cheap at the moment there not, and I still haven't seen a fire sale yet where the computer algorithms loose the plot and shut down and panic selling kicks in.
Sure we have seen some serious selling in oil but it hasn't shaken hedge fund books where they just liquidate at any cost the whole book.

How low do you see BHP going?

When I first made the call some laughed it off saying they would mortgage there house and buy BHP share under $30
Well shares are now around the $27.20 so is there more to go?
Yep just wait until profit downgrades kick in and P/E come off, then dividens are a little reduced.
Yes the superannuation industry will keep pumping money into these stocks so you will never loose out but I'm talking about buy cheap and hold for 15-20 years.
For those who don't know the Australian model of superannuation is designed to ensure an income for people before they retire so as not to be paid a pension.
The only problem with the model is it doesn't allow for inflation and as a result more and more money is required to be invested to make the adequate return.
The industry and government won't admit it and as a result it's a system which is now used for a tax revenue, on people.
It complicated I don't want to go into it.
Note this readers last time BHP traded under $20 was 2009.

After this 2 year correction we will see 17 years of growth, that's why very important to look for bargains and be ready when they come.

When would be the ideal time to consider investments in property or stocks?

I don't follow all markets around the world so you have to do your own research.
But as I have said before until a 30-40% reduction in prices has hit just wait.
I noticed that all the auto makers are upbeat about lower oil prices means more car sales .
Well I do think so.
People will change there habits and will make do with what they have.
Here in Singapore already bars and restaurants are seeing a serious slowdown in business activity.
That's bound to happen elsewhere where to.
In the states the media tends to be some what manipulated by what government what's to be reported.
Facts are employment is up but to the low skilled workers who are on minimum wage.
So how are these people going to buy these new cars or iPads.
When these people work to feed themselves and there families.

Why have you turned negative on Apple?
Apple is a company of innovation, what we have right now is the last of it.
Watches seriously who wears a watch? My father who is 71 doesn't wear a watch!
Apples competition has not only past them in innovation but has a good 3 years on them with half the price tag of an iPad or iPhone.
I'm not talking about Samsung either.
All phones are made in China at the present time wether you like it or not that's where everything is made.
China has tablet and phone makers that not many people know that can do what the latest pads and phones can do plus more.
What Apple is good at is advertising and that's where they have the upper hand at the present time but  that has a time limit to it.
The Chinese are very good at getting there act together and making it happen so it only a matter of time before they tap into the world markets.
Now in regards to other revenue streams, the app business that's in the process of being opened up by many governments around the world as its a monopoly,no longer can Apple rely on 34% of every dollar spent on it App Store. ( that's just some of the issue)

For those who are not aware we have the first of the Mercury retrogrades coming on the 21st of this month until the 11th of February.
Wouldn't you know it is also earnings time for Wall Street.
So what does that tell you,we are in for a hell of a ride.
Those who miss will get smashed and those who lie during this time will face the consequences before June.
Those who make it will stay put as it was expected.
But the question is if there is no growth in the half year results what happens then to the multi national companies.

As always use the above as an indicator to your own work.
Past performance is no guarantee for future performance.
Ask your financial advisor on more on the above.
Don't act on free reading as you haven't payed for it to be obligated.

There you have it . As seen last year by aspects

At $40 a barrel many start to feel the heat.
I wonder what about $30  maybe then they close down drilling.
Today folks you guessed it Goldman came out with a downgrade after what oil is down 50% in a quarter..
YOU GOT TO LOVE THE AMERICANS SOMETIMES.
NEVER WANT TO BE LAST AT THE DANCE..
IT REMINDS ME OF A SAYING WHEN I WAS YOUNGER,
NEVER STAY OUT AFTER 2am.. There is only leftovers around.

This is an exact same case...


So is it time to buy ?
Not until June- July


http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/1/8/commodities/us-shale-will-feel-heat-opecs-price-ware