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Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Financial astrology

Hi readers

When I look at stock to invest in not trade I look at 3 things which are pivotal
First... is the astrology, where is the stock at and where it's heading.
Second ...I look at what its product or service to use.
Third...what the financials of the business and how can or will it improve.

The stock in which we have powerful positive astrology is Farm Pride Foods.
First the financial astrology.
For the amature astrologers
From May 2013-May 2015 it when through its Saturn station.( it's restructure so to speak)
As of July 13th 2015 -Sep 23rd it pushed through a Venus trine Pluto at 11 degrees.
This is seeds of the restructure starting to pop up.
As of 9th Dec2015-9th Dec 2017 the company will have jupiter trine Venus in the 2nd house.
This is the most powerful of astrological aspects you can get which affects companies going forward.
Many amature astrologers will question this but when we also put the 6 degrees of the affect is hard to dispute if you know financial astrology.

So what does the company do?

There in the eggs business.
Yep eggs, everyone eats eggs.
They are the largest egg producers on the eastern board of Australia.
They supply eggs to the large chain stores that being (Coles and Safeway).
While there a number of small and medium producers as competitors, to supply the major chains they have that business covered.
The food service industry is growing also and with health regulations around the country forcing many small producers to modernise Farm Pride is sitting in the box seat to pick up future market share.
The health crap which we all got told about eggs increases cholesterol was the biggest fraud in food.
More people are eating eggs and are healthy for it as its proven in the July MD health magazine.

It's competitors being Pace farms and Meggles are very unreliable in the supply for product to the chain stores on the eastern boarder.
So the chain store have no choice but to deal with Farm Pride and accept any pricing structure.
If they had to deal with small producers with the central invoicing systems they have it would be a nightmare.
Sure Farm Pride wouldn't have the quality as some smaller producers but there the only ones with the volume, which leaves the chain stores paralysed.
Bottom line without Farm Pride Australia doesn't eat eggs and that's why in the event of any issues the government will support.

We then look at the value added products that being eggs pulp, scrabbled egg mix, and the aggressively growing market of egg whites to the weight loss and body building industry.
The equipment to make these product,FRM has he capacity to supply, and have the quality to keep growing there market.

Financials
It's looks as tho the company went into building new farms and hiring farms to secure its supply.
Obviously when this occurred it's looks as tho the GFC hit and they couldn't sell stock to raise money.
So it looks as they the company when into serious debt to secure its supply.
As those farms are now coming online Farm Pride has halved it's debt and is making a healthy profit.
I like the fact there is a tight management structure, as I don't see why you need fat cats being paid at the top.
they have been exporting products overseas and I see this continuing in the future with Australia's clean green promotion.

Who are the stake holders in the company?

It appears that the WA co, ( Westcoast eggs)have a massive invested interest in Farm Pride.
Why is that ?
To secure supply to Farm Pride.
As Farm Pride become more self sufficent supply of product will decrease.
It's my understanding reading from the Australian Egg Councils paperwork that WA producers over supply the state by 15%.
Simply there a lot bigger farms with the security of 3 day truck drive which protects them from competition from other producers around the country.

So let's look at valuation
The company has 55 million share.
At $1.80-$2 the company is worth $100 million
If it continue as is without growth and erases it's debt and culls the supply from WA company will earn $19million
If the growth continues and I can see why it won't with the increasing population in Australia, at current levels which we have been told will, in a statement to the market.
Company value then pushes to the $175-200 million.

Now this is the curve ball.
WA own 49% of the company.
WA needs Farm Pride more than the latter.
They even have to members on the board overseeing.
In the event that the culls begins, and Farm Pride no longer need WA.
What do they do?
There not selling out that's for sure , there takeover bid is in play.
For which then what is a reasonable prices knowing that WA need Farm Pride.
It's my view that $7.40 a share is a fair price.
That's equates to around $400 million.





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