Hi readers
As we are seeing the continuation of the devaluing US$ all commodities are gaining value.
Not because of a supply and demand issue, it's just a pure dollar play...
Note this won't continue as many believe, and the market will be left on the wrong side of the move only to swing the other way hard.
In the grain and soft markets the weather ghosts are going to play havoc with supply and prices will continue higher.
As stated to the commodity players via email grains and softs are the best trades.
Not metals or oil, as supply is ample and more is coming onto the market unhedged at the present time.
To the couple of grains farms in NSW who jump on the wheat option trade with us last week, hold your nerve even tho the trade has doubled there is still more to go.
Those who are long metals or oil be very careful as a hit can come at anytime.
I can tell you with certainty that every shale oil rig available to every company in the sector is being deployed.
So regardless of what OPEC say and do the sector has ample supply, but is being held back artificially to increase price.
Those in the industry know this and are waiting as long as possible to forward sell production and lock in price.
Once the market awakes to this it's too late, so please when trading oil or metals use caution.
In grains and soon in softs weather will damage crops leaving supply in a tight squeeze.
On the stock front our stock play FRM.ax is looking fine, we see the media beating the supply drums for the company, in the last 24 hours.
Which will once again give Farm pride the authority to increase prices and increase profitability.
While the stock has been in that $1.80-$2.20 area of fair value, the market will now begin to start factoring in potential profitability going forward.
Don't need to be a brain surgeon to work that out!
Look at what prices of eggs are at the present time, look what they are in about a months time and then minus the difference of the two.
That will give you a number, 50% of that number will flow back to the company while the other half the retailer will pocket.
Take note with grain prices rising, media beat up on short supply ?
That to me is the perfect storm to raise prices..
How wonderful it is how astrology works.
One for the true believers
As we are seeing the continuation of the devaluing US$ all commodities are gaining value.
Not because of a supply and demand issue, it's just a pure dollar play...
Note this won't continue as many believe, and the market will be left on the wrong side of the move only to swing the other way hard.
In the grain and soft markets the weather ghosts are going to play havoc with supply and prices will continue higher.
As stated to the commodity players via email grains and softs are the best trades.
Not metals or oil, as supply is ample and more is coming onto the market unhedged at the present time.
To the couple of grains farms in NSW who jump on the wheat option trade with us last week, hold your nerve even tho the trade has doubled there is still more to go.
Those who are long metals or oil be very careful as a hit can come at anytime.
I can tell you with certainty that every shale oil rig available to every company in the sector is being deployed.
So regardless of what OPEC say and do the sector has ample supply, but is being held back artificially to increase price.
Those in the industry know this and are waiting as long as possible to forward sell production and lock in price.
Once the market awakes to this it's too late, so please when trading oil or metals use caution.
In grains and soon in softs weather will damage crops leaving supply in a tight squeeze.
On the stock front our stock play FRM.ax is looking fine, we see the media beating the supply drums for the company, in the last 24 hours.
Which will once again give Farm pride the authority to increase prices and increase profitability.
While the stock has been in that $1.80-$2.20 area of fair value, the market will now begin to start factoring in potential profitability going forward.
Don't need to be a brain surgeon to work that out!
Look at what prices of eggs are at the present time, look what they are in about a months time and then minus the difference of the two.
That will give you a number, 50% of that number will flow back to the company while the other half the retailer will pocket.
Take note with grain prices rising, media beat up on short supply ?
That to me is the perfect storm to raise prices..
How wonderful it is how astrology works.
One for the true believers
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