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Friday, November 4, 2016

General view

Hi readers

It's been a while since we have seen real fear in the markets.
Yet everytime the S&P try's to gather momentum sellers come in liquidating positions.
Many are worried of a Trump government and so they should be.
The bugger does have a chance of pulling it off too.
If the Republican Party wasn't so red neck and had Ben Carson as its candidate they would have won by a landslide.
But with Donald it's a no idea what will happen.
One thing is for sure if he does win Americans might want to think twice about traveling overseas.
There will be a lot of hatred towards them which is very sad.
America is involved in 6 or 7 wars around the world at the present time, this style of government needs to change.
Interesting times ahead.

On the commodities front we see a lot of excess crop floating around at the present time.
In fact ethanol production has decreased dramatically due to the lower oil prices hence we now have a glut of production.
I've always seen that everytime there is a glut on the market, that's the time to start looking at opportunities.
In the metals I don't see any positives for gold going forward, I still believe golds value is around $800-$850, not 1300 as is the case.
Should Hilary win gold will fall aggressively and the market will regain a strong head of steam moving into Xmas.


I'll be looking as some of the ES dec and march calls Monday. 2200 for a spec trade.. they closed around 4.70 .
I'm anticipating a 150 point move up should Hilary win.
But if Donald wins then that investment will burn up.
So use caution and have a look at it on the sidelines should you not be interested .

On a different note was talking to a number of funds over lunch who seriously manage money ..(6billion combined)

There attitudes towards there US investment are very interesting.
Should Trump win they will liquidate all there holdings in US assets, not because of there views towards the market but because of the instability Trump could bring.
Also it's the right thing to do by there clients,even if the market moves up 20% they don't care.
They will increase allocation to others markets.
Which took me back some what when I heard it.

Those trading Tuesday get plenty of rest might be a wild session.
Interested to see if the computer trading programs are turned off. Then we might get some big spreads, with shit volume.
So much for a transparent market.

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