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Friday, March 10, 2017

4.7 unemployment rate REALLY......

Hi readers

How good is it ...
The unemployment numbers are showing potential full employment yet talk to people and no one can find a job.
Same case with Australia the way in which the unemployment numbers are calculated are a joke.
Since when was 18 hours part time employment classed as employed.
Anyway it looks great and the fed has its go ahead to raise rates.

What has Trump done since taking office to encourage employment? Bluffing the market and his good at it.
Problem he will have soon is when crops need to be picked and there is no Mexican workers to pick what will that do to the price of fruit and vegetables.

I have made the comment to a number of you from the US if the dollar keeps on rising exports sales will tumble and imports will run riot.
Later in the year this might settle down but for the time being it's seriously hurting multi nationals companies.
For the time being the smart money is aware of it and is liquidating equities on the positive days, while if the market is down there is a back off approach.

While many of you use technical analysis reading the tape also is a wonderful insight.

So when is the astrology going negative on the market, many are asking!
May......you don't want to be holding equities unless you know what's going on with the company or you have a long term view and can hold a stock through a negative period.
Always remember small cap spec stocks will suffer a lot more than chip stocks as funding tends to dry up in a declining market.

In the commodities market I only see value in corn, wheat and beans, but with a dead oil price I doubt  prices will be able to trade higher.
Oil is extremely overpriced and has been a Xmas windfall for all shale oil producers.
Like our company many have sold heavily into the market bore $52 for the last couple of months and an over production of crude oil will kill prices going forward regardless what the Saudi's or Russian do. There is a glut..

In the metals market prices are still overpriced, gold in particular.
Silver will improve after June but not gold.

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