more rate increases coming

 Hi Readers

Its been a while since I've last posted and I do have a number of posts to post.

I deliberately held back posting just to see how the market and peoples views of whats playing out.

I've got to say that I am really disappointed peoples thinking moving forward.

The thought that governments or central banks are going to sign blank checks to people is a massive delusion. 

Interest rates are going to continue going higher for the simple reason, inflation is a nuclear bomb politically. People will tolerate it for a while but once the savings are gone the patients runs out and the blame becomes permanent.

The FED and the Biden administration know this and while the market believes the FED will pivot and cut rates to protect the economy or the stock market, I doubt this will take place and I will explain why?

The FED first made the error of buy junk bonds and keeping rates low for far too long.

They had the opportunity to move in February 2021 but refused to and doubled down on there bond buying.

The FED then when inflation in March started to show up started calling it transitory.

Since when was this word ever used in finance ? never.

Yet the market believed the FED and not what was taking place, its was when the bonds yields started to rise that the FED had to back down and realize that the market wasn't believing the bullshit it was being fed (transitory).

Now that the FED has increased rates repeatedly market participates and trying to convince the FED to pivot, and that the economy will fall into a recession if they don't.

People have become so trained to being told that the media can convince people including in finance of what equates to a recession.

The economy has already been in a recession since March 2022 but the official 2 quarters of negative GDP came out a fortnight ago and now we here the bullshit again about we might get revisions and what have you.

For those who don't know during good times central banks cut the money supply by increasing rates and flood the system with cheap money during a recession, to boost productivity.

So what is the FED doing right now ?  the total opposite and they have no choice  due to the above error. (inflation)

So now lets look at what the FED's hedge is to raising rates and not taking responsibility for there actions.

It's call the Jobs market, people are demanding higher wages and either companies pay up or workers will walk. Over the last month all I've seen is companies laying off staff not employing. Yet the numbers are showing 12 million  job openings.

I put one very simple question to you, if there is basically 2 jobs out there for every unemployed registered worker then why is US GDP dropping.

For companies chasing staff means they are pumping out production and profits yet in the Q2 profit results every company was clearly stating that they missed forecasts or they are experiencing lower sales or production moving forward.

So now that you understand how central banks are playing this game moving forward, you can position yourselves to take advantage of it.

Central banks don't give a shit about the economy's, they will keep raising rates until inflation comes down. 

The world should be watching the FED because all central banks are playing the same game. The FED as stated previously exported the inflation around the world, so watch whats taking place in the US as economy's are just months behind.

As this is being posted there is an hour to go before the CPI numbers come out, and yes they will be lower, but still 4 times higher than what the FED's target rate of 2% inflation.

Media will start spinning out the bullshit of inflation has peaked but I don't believe so.

US government is selling oil from its strategic reserves, Biden has been begging the Arab nations for more oil production but no one gives a rats.

The FED is doing its job by cutting peoples expenditure by raising rates and killing demand.

After the midterm election I think oil will make a come back to higher prices.

Grains haven't changed yet the paper price has fallen, crop yields look very poor but the USDA won't publish real numbers in yields as grains will explode in price.

Unless you do your own research obtaining data from government agencies, it must be taken with a grain of salt.

As always use the above as an indicator to your own work.

Ask your financial advisor on more on the above.

I am not a financial advisor, and the above is for educational purposes only