Morning to you all... From Manama Bahrain. 12.30am
It has been a while since I have posted and my apology for that but I did have a contractual arrangement which was enforced.
The client has extended the contract for another 3 months which is good and bad.
So what's happened?
Market has gone up, commodities have come down.
Currencies are all over the place and bonds are in a bursting bubble.
To my clients as your all aware we are still holding all our options.
I know many of you call me nuts and crazy at the time but I guess now that has all but changed.
We will continue to hold all the options until I get back.(4th October).
Lets go into depth.
Gold trade 1450Dec Put
Gold for me hasn't changed at all, it can still go lower regardless of what many believe.
There is no reason to preserve capital at this stage of this cycle.
Its bullshit from the media that gold went up so high and now is coming back to realistic levels.
Can it go lower or high of course.
At the end of the day when you take away what's being reported and you do your homework you will see that so many people got caught with buying physical gold at the high prices that an objective was achieved.
As I said before in previous posts we are not going to be buying bread and milk with gold coins or bars.
There is loads of gold out there.
Iran oil has been getting paid in gold bars by the Russians for the last how many years.
South Africa, China and other Asian countries have been mining as fast as they can to take advantage of the high gold prices.
Yes at the expense of the Australian, US and Canadian miners having to go through red tape to obtain approval to mine.
Looking at the astrology for the next 3 months nothing really changes.
It might drift up but there is still another 2 more attacks on gold before this September quarter is through.
We look at the trouble in Egypt, in Europe and China this should all be positive for gold.
WRONG WRONG
Its positive for the dollar as money will always come back home to the US.
BONDS 138Dec Put
I was surprised by the magnitude of the move and remain confident that we will see 130 or lower by mid October/November.
The fact that Ben has changed his tune on QE and the bond buying didn't surprise me.
In fact any financial astrologers who did there work on the Fed's chart and Ben chart would have realised that a change was coming.
I was just taken back by the volatility of the move and expected the bonds to be around the 136-137 area by now.
As the old saying goes we have to pay the piper back one day.
That's when the shit will hit the fan and we will be long gold but not now.
Yes the US will default on it debt obligations I believe in 2014-2015...But we are in 2013 at the present time so don't get ahead of yourselves.
A$98 Dec Puts... the cream of them all
At the start of the year we made mention that the dollar would suffer dearly for the incompetent government which yes was voted by the people.
With the Solar eclipse being triggered north in Australia late last year and squaring a number of times this year the country has basically stopped doing business.
I cant believe that here on the Aljazeera news a reporter asked a question to the opposition leader and because he told her to carmdown women groups are up in arms in Australia.
It was obviously are reporter from the local Australian papers.
Has the country become that soft that we have to watch what we say?
Are our women that soft that we can't say anything to them?
I'm completely lost on the subject as here women if the talk back will get beaten.
Now I don't Condon beating people but seriously ladies tough the F up.
Your so lucky compared to the women here.
If a reports did that here she would be escorted out by security and whipped a dozen times depending on who she disrespected.
As a Dual Australian citizen we really need to smarten up and worry about more serious issue not these silly self interests.
Its the reason the country has lost 15 years of growth and prosperity.
The country in 2006 was the 4th efficient and most prospered country in the world and now its 70th.
To our Australian friends who wanted to buy real-estate and US dollars at the time we mentioned them to do so should be laughing all the way to the bank at the present time.
As many puppets (economic analysts) where talking about 108-110 to the US dollar.
There faith in Astrology has obviously made them a good 14% on there money just on the conversion.
Going forward I don't see how the A$ can hold off a continued slide.
Sure there will be a great number of orders sitting at the 90 cent level but that wont hold.
with the political unrest which the country is going through at the moment and the money spending of stupid programs which both parties will promise I believe 83 level is where the dollar might stop.
The problem the country has is that its written so much debt up and over Par to the US dollar that every cent drop in the value of the A$ just increases the debt.( basically like an interest rate 1 cent move = 1percent more on the debt.)
Where as the US has written up so much debt that a 1 cent move increase of the dollar reduces the net debt by 1%.
So who is the sucker in all this?
Just on the Party astrology.
I haven't done the astrology for the up and coming election as I don't know when it will be held.
A liberal government could see a 6 months to a year recession.
A labour government could see a 2 year if not more of sluggish/recession type condition for the country, basically more of the same.
To the managers
The A$/C$ spread when we last made mention of it was sitting at 400 or so.
As your well aware now its at -350.
That's a good 700 point profit I think its time to look at taking money of the table of the next fortnight before the C$ decides to start sliding quickly.
To the grain and soft traders
Weather has played a big part in prices of all commodities.
With the price of oil kicking back above the $100 a barrel level you will start to see a serious move in the production of ethanol. Which could push prices higher but don't get to excited by it just buy low sell high.
In the Softs in Coffee we have seen years of coffee which has been hoarded by the powerful cartels put on the market and kept the market at bay but for how long.
Astrology doesn't lie! sure its delayed and sometimes mistakes are made by those reading the astrology but there is no mistake here... this has been and will continue to be for at least another 16 months.
Its annoying that it hasn't made a run as yet.
In cotton
With the credit squeeze in China don't expect hoarding of cotton to take place.
I suspect that the Chinese will be obligated to sell crops at whatever prices to accommodate there bankers, threats of financing.
If anything this will make this market a bitch to buy and hold or sell and roll.
Reason being when commodities get hit this market will flow with them.
Looking at the astrology weather conditions in Sept/Oct could damage crops and as a result poor quality will come to the market in Feb/March14 for the US.
To the Australian Cotton Growers don't expect a dry season, if anything you could have serious moisture.
What the cotton out of China is like is any ones guess but it my understanding the trigger will go off.
Can we see 75 or 90 yes .
The Pakistan and Indian crops will be irrelevant.
When you work for a government authority you must respect there rules and laws.
Its for this reasons at times I have no access to communicate with you all.
For those who are thinking of taking up employment here you really need to do your homework before taking a position.
http://derivativesfishing.blogspot.com.au/2012/12/australian-economy-forecast-2013.html
As always please use the above as an indicator to your own work.
Futures trading can produce huge profits and losses
Past performances are no guarantee for future performances.
Ask your financial advisor on more on the above.
