metals no rush

Hi Readers once again we see metals taking a hit after the numbers which came out yesterday.

All but insuring that the Fed will move another 50 basis point in September.

The CNBC goons squad was pushing that the Fed was done only to realize that another move is coming.

I just want to explain how metals are traded in funds as some have asked the Question, while others have no clue.

So an equity fund/hedge fund will have its allocation stocks whatever it is and then will have 5 or 10% in metals physical exposure.

Reason for this is they are only allowed to be in cash of up to 2-5% that's the way most are structured.

 Have more than that amount in cash holding is a violation of the managers fiduciary responsibility to its holders and will be exposed in the quarterly audits.Any violation of there responsibility can have serious legal ramifications.

I say this because both wholesale and retail clients can be pain in the asses, with complaints that the manager was too conservative with there investments or is to bearish on there outlook. Believe me money will move if this is the case, especially in the US.

So what managers do is buy metals and just hold them.

Should they ever get margin called or want to buy a certain stock, rather than mucking up the balance of the portfolio they dumb the metals and have the cash on call for whatever they need to do.

No violations and no drama with cash on call.

So now we come to the other part about when do metals go up?

For those who have been here a while you know that metals don't increase in value on an inflationary environment. Metals like crypto coins are a deflationary tool.Metals will hold and trade much much higher in a deflationary environment. Currently as your all aware we are in an inflationary environment and its for this reason metals will continue to trade sideways to higher but slowly. Please don't believe some of the crap YouTube posters state. they have there own agenda. 

So lets look as some of the scenario's .

1. We have explained above how managers use metal positions, so if we get a slow winding death in the stock market of economy where do metal prices go?

2. February-March 2023 the potential for a crash is very real? where will prices be then!

3. Does the user case for the metal far exceeds the supply?

4. While its a storage of wealth how do you buy necessary. yes heard about the barter way but I'd like to see it before I'm confident to say that..

 This post is only for educational purposes 

ask your financial advisor on more on the above

10.1 UK inflation and its going higher

 Hi Readers markets around the world are trading higher but lets see for how long?

The illusion that the central banks will pivot is nothing more but a dream and hope.

We have just had the Reserve bank of New Zealand increase rates again by .50bps for the fourth time in a row. We have just seen the UK inflation figures and yes over 10% CPI ,so what does that tell you ?

What the central banks are doing isn't working this slow and steady approach is making it worse as inflation is becoming stuck on the economy. 

So what are the options going forward for the central banks? there are a few but they are quickly becoming irrelevant if they don't act soon.

1. Squeezing the balance sheet has to occur this side of Christmas and completed.

2. Raise interest rates way quicker than what they are doing so, the softly softly approach is feeding inflation. Yes central banks are looking to curb demand and allow things to settle down without stimulus, but this idea works well on a computer model not in reality.

3. The biggest fear central banks now have is wage inflation, should the people up-rise for wage rises then this inflation will last for 5 years at the minimum.

4. The other option is to use American economics and have an inflation figure less everything that's going up, if we calculated inflation the same as we did in 1990 the current US inflation would be 16.8% where would interest rates be then ?

5. The only other option which is the right option is to immediately increase rates higher than the rate of inflation. As the IMF said to other countries like Argentina, Brazil and Colombia. These countries got forced to increase rates higher than the rate of there inflation rate. But as the western world is so indebted a interest rate of such would bankrupt or wipe out 30 years of wealth. Now you can see why every government around the world is trying to blame Russia for there inflation which had begun way before Russia's invasion. Inflation begun when all government had started giving stimulus cheque's for free. Regardless of the conditions no government had the right to do what it did. But society has become so entitled in there thinking that instant gratification is a cancer culture.

 So as you can see we are in some very difficult times and those of you who are start can put the two together. The you will own nothing and be happy statement is taking shape infront of our very eyes.

 

This post is for educational purposes.

Seek professional advise on the above. 

 

Is the Rally real or an illusion

 Hi Readers

While the news coming out is continuing to be bad all around the world retail is being lured into believing the illusions that we have seen the bottom, and that the Fed will slow down its rate rises and even cut rates.

Lets get one thing straight which will come but not for a while Deflation.

Many analysts have said it over and over again but this won't play out until the mid to end of 2023 going by what my astrology is showing.

Yes at the present time inflation has stabilized but this is only going to last until the mid term elections, once the republicans take the senate Biden won't be able to use the strategic reserves to lower energy prices. Oil will rise again and the inflation bubble will continue.

The market is so consumed with the economy and that the Fed will pivot and support the stock market, but this is more hope than a reality. Inflation is now stuck on the economy like a tumor and yes its going to get a lot worse than many think of believe.

The Fed has no choice but to raise rates and as a result central banks must increase rates more than the Fed to protect both there debt and currency markets.

In regards to the stock market it is just a derivative to the bond market. The Bond market is where the Fed is more concerned about. The Commercial banks have $2.2 Trillion sitting at the Fed in reverse repo, I don't want to get too technical but if the Fed wants that money to go into the stock market they could stop paying .20% and that money will make its way into both the bond market and stock market.

Get this, firms are cutting back staff, and GDP is falling and companies have already begun guiding lower forward estimates yet we are told that there is 11 million vacancies openings in the US. If that tells you that there is something wrong I don't know what will. But the market has gain 12% for its lower on anticipation of the Fed pivoting.

Yes the astrology was showing a bounce but the move this week has surprised me. I didn't think that the S&P would trade above 4200. So lets see how markets trade over the next fortnight. Please use the next month or 2 to stock up what you require as prices will continue to increase.

The property market has started feeling the pressure of higher interest rates with people being told by banks to put there properties on the market, but there is no panic yet as if there was we would be witnessing massive numbers on the auction front. What we see is property being put on the market for private sale.

The above should be used for educational purposes.

The above is based on Astrological aspects.

Ask your financial advisor on more on the above

 

 

more rate increases coming

 Hi Readers

Its been a while since I've last posted and I do have a number of posts to post.

I deliberately held back posting just to see how the market and peoples views of whats playing out.

I've got to say that I am really disappointed peoples thinking moving forward.

The thought that governments or central banks are going to sign blank checks to people is a massive delusion. 

Interest rates are going to continue going higher for the simple reason, inflation is a nuclear bomb politically. People will tolerate it for a while but once the savings are gone the patients runs out and the blame becomes permanent.

The FED and the Biden administration know this and while the market believes the FED will pivot and cut rates to protect the economy or the stock market, I doubt this will take place and I will explain why?

The FED first made the error of buy junk bonds and keeping rates low for far too long.

They had the opportunity to move in February 2021 but refused to and doubled down on there bond buying.

The FED then when inflation in March started to show up started calling it transitory.

Since when was this word ever used in finance ? never.

Yet the market believed the FED and not what was taking place, its was when the bonds yields started to rise that the FED had to back down and realize that the market wasn't believing the bullshit it was being fed (transitory).

Now that the FED has increased rates repeatedly market participates and trying to convince the FED to pivot, and that the economy will fall into a recession if they don't.

People have become so trained to being told that the media can convince people including in finance of what equates to a recession.

The economy has already been in a recession since March 2022 but the official 2 quarters of negative GDP came out a fortnight ago and now we here the bullshit again about we might get revisions and what have you.

For those who don't know during good times central banks cut the money supply by increasing rates and flood the system with cheap money during a recession, to boost productivity.

So what is the FED doing right now ?  the total opposite and they have no choice  due to the above error. (inflation)

So now lets look at what the FED's hedge is to raising rates and not taking responsibility for there actions.

It's call the Jobs market, people are demanding higher wages and either companies pay up or workers will walk. Over the last month all I've seen is companies laying off staff not employing. Yet the numbers are showing 12 million  job openings.

I put one very simple question to you, if there is basically 2 jobs out there for every unemployed registered worker then why is US GDP dropping.

For companies chasing staff means they are pumping out production and profits yet in the Q2 profit results every company was clearly stating that they missed forecasts or they are experiencing lower sales or production moving forward.

So now that you understand how central banks are playing this game moving forward, you can position yourselves to take advantage of it.

Central banks don't give a shit about the economy's, they will keep raising rates until inflation comes down. 

The world should be watching the FED because all central banks are playing the same game. The FED as stated previously exported the inflation around the world, so watch whats taking place in the US as economy's are just months behind.

As this is being posted there is an hour to go before the CPI numbers come out, and yes they will be lower, but still 4 times higher than what the FED's target rate of 2% inflation.

Media will start spinning out the bullshit of inflation has peaked but I don't believe so.

US government is selling oil from its strategic reserves, Biden has been begging the Arab nations for more oil production but no one gives a rats.

The FED is doing its job by cutting peoples expenditure by raising rates and killing demand.

After the midterm election I think oil will make a come back to higher prices.

Grains haven't changed yet the paper price has fallen, crop yields look very poor but the USDA won't publish real numbers in yields as grains will explode in price.

Unless you do your own research obtaining data from government agencies, it must be taken with a grain of salt.

As always use the above as an indicator to your own work.

Ask your financial advisor on more on the above.

I am not a financial advisor, and the above is for educational purposes only

9% inflation top in yet? I think not

 Hi Readers .

So inflation has now hit 9% of what we are told , Bond rates are dropping in yield and we are being conditioned or should I say convinced that all is fine and there is nothing to see.

Well lets just question that !

The rental component of the inflation measure is just 5.4%, now My understanding is that rents have gone up by at least 20% nation wide in the US, internet websites have said it crystal clear that rents have increased by 26% nation wide.

Food increases on average have gone up 21% yet the inflation numbers don't even come close to that and lets not start about energy component also.

As I said before until rates are above the rate of inflation we aren't going to see inflation come down.

The Fed is going to move again even tho they will regret it, they have no choice but to move on rates.

They are trying to manipulate the inflation by increasing the value of the USD and manipulate the commodity market. But unfortunately what the Fed doesn't realize or understand is that there is a major difference between the paper price of commodities and the real price of commodities.Paper prices is what the media and market participants know. The real price of delivery is what the users are buying and passing onto the consumer. So here is the next level of misunderstanding which all central banks don't get.

All food processes who buy raw commodities increase prices slowly, as not to spook the consumers/customers. So when prices do come down and there costs do come down prices to consumer don't move down they stay where they are until margins and profits have been restored.

Its not discretionary spending where your convincing people to buy something they don't need or peoples businesses income comes from sales of products.It's food which yes is a perishable product but people need to have it, there is no choice.  

Something to keep in mind moving forward the inflation rate in the US is around that 19% mark which shadow stats has shown.

Also note that with the stronger USD inflation as I said months ago is being exported overseas.

We are witnessing countries go broke and people are starving yet the world media isn't showing anything of it.Yes things are going to become more difficult moving forward but as longs as your aware of the truth then you can take measures which can somewhat insulate the blow. 

Your seeing provinces in China where people can't take there money out to buy the normal household items. Yes this started in April and has spread from 1 bank to 6 banks.

In Sri Lanka the government defaulted on debt and the people have rebelled against the government as prices inflation has forced people to go hungry as they simply can't afford the costs of food and energy. As I have said it before the one thing governments fear is there own people rebelling.

In Australia we are starting to see cracks everywhere also, previously covid rules would act on stages, Yet this time around nothing is being acted upon. Which has finally shown people that it was never about there health, there was an agenda to in debt people and small businesses, then when the so called support came along  small business never qualified yet every multinational business/asx listed did. The fear or rebellion was so great this time that the federal cabinet was called in and reinstated stimulus cheques immediately to people to stay home if they have covid.

My concern is that everyone I know who has been double jabbed has had covid a second time. Yet those who haven't been jabbed are fine, just putting it out there as the truth is painful to accept.

 Now here comes the reality check for some of you who don't understand whats taking place.

Covid is going to reduce the unemployed levels and as a result will show that there is a strong labour market, which is the justification the central banks will need to increase rates against inflation. Yet getting away from the reality that it was the central banks that created the environment of cheap money to lure more debt into the market. As the world runs on a debt base system.

As always use the above as an indicator to your own work

Ask your financial advisor on more on the above.

The above is based of  financial astrological aspects.

 

On for the Australian investment community

 Hi readers

We are continuing to read how there is a housing crisis in Australia. 

How is that possible when the census came out with numbers that simply blew me away. Over 1.1 million homes are vacant. 16% of apartments are vacant and 14% of townhouses. I say this because I’m hear of rents going up yet homes are empty.

I understand landlords why they refuse to rent the property out. Bad experiences can lead you to being shy next time around. But how can this be people with debt yet to lease income and hopeful of just selling it at higher prices. 

This is where properly had become a gambling’s spectacle and need to end by all means. House are for people to live in not for gambling and it’s for this reason that I hope rate run to 5% and house prices fall 50%, it’s the only way that this will change people’s view on housing.

 As always use the above as an indicator to your own research.

Ask your financial advisor on more on the above.

I’m a financial astrology not a financial advisor. 

BBUS is the best investment moving forward

 Hi readers

So where are we looking forward. Inflation is rising regardless of what the number is and the cost of living is outstripping wage rises which in turn is putting people backward even this they don’t realise it.

Those with families at the present time are feeling the pinch with the cost of groceries exploding. Many younger people are only experiencing higher energy cost at the present time but believe me this will change after September . 

So where do we look at investing moving forward? 

As your all aware I hold my core positions of BuB, DXB and BBUS. 

I will be looking to increase my BBUS exposure as I don’t see anything worth buying at the present time. I anticipated that gold and silver  would of been slammed by know but this hasn’t happened yet. Hence why I refuse to buy both gold miners or specs stocks.

There is no rush just slowly look at accumulate at a certain price. We have time until September , after that the trouble will start and if there is manipulation until the mid terms that’s ok too as the longer it takes the heavier the fall will be. 2023 will be the disaster year for the stock market and world economy. 

House prices I think regardless of where you live will see 2005 prices or lower, just depends on how indebted the economy is to the housing market. In Australia for example I can see a  Halving of prices if not more from the peaks.

This is what the astrology is showing and that’s why I’m putting it out there . Wether you agree with it or not is a matter for you. 

Inflation pressure will continue and regardless of what anyone says rates have to go up. The RBA in Australia is so far behind that it won’t surprise me if they move .75% -1% in a weeks time. The Australian dollar is in the firing line as there is no value to hold Australia dollars. I’ve heard the bullshit of don’t fight the central banks on what they say, but on this occasion they are full of shit, if you think that the Fed or the BOE or the ECB is going to dictate commodity prices you are gravely mistaken.

I have 2 businesses which are production firms of foods and a joint investors in another and I can tell you no central bank can dictate prices. 

Not all commodities are cash settlements, they are deliverable, grains, oil, and soft commodities are just that. They are not like gold which are cash settled at the expiration date. It’s for this reason the Fed or any central bank can’t control price’s with interest rate rises. 

Just remember that when you hear the media bullshit. Inflation was were way before Ukraine war but the US and NATO blame the war. 

The media said that Russia defaulted of debt which isn’t true, Russia has shit loads of cash, the Ruble is at a 8 year high to the US dollar. China and India is selling Russia oil to the world and making a 22% commission on the trades. Yet the world is being told that Russia is struggling total crap. 

As always the above is based on financial astrology.

Ask your financial advisor on more on the above.

I’m a financial astrology not a financial advisor.